UPDATE: Typhoon Talim

15 Sep 2017

Typhoon Talim is tracking northward in the East China Sea, about 368 km (230 miles) east of Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, the evening of September 14. The typhoon has strengthened significantly since entering warmer waters and maximum sustained winds in excess of 212 kph (132 mph) are occurring near the center of circulation. Talim is forecast to begin veering eastward through September 15, before it starts tracking northeastward toward Japan. Though models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it tracks toward Japan, the storm will remain a typhoon as it makes landfall in central Kyushu Island late September 16 or early September 17. Talim is projected to track over Kyushu, Shikoku, and western Honshu islands in Japan before entering the Sea of Japan late September 17; however, the storm's path could change in the coming days. 

The typhoon is forecast to remain east of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces September 14-15, reducing the overall impact of the storm on China's eastern seaboard. However, wind gusts of up to 80 kph (50 mph) are likely in Zhejiang and Shanghai through September 15. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible and could lead to flash flooding in several areas, but total rainfall accumulations are only expected to reach 75 mm (4 inches) in affected areas. Landslides are possible in mountainous areas, and storm surge flooding may occur in some areas along the Zhejiang coast, especially Wenzhou and Ningbo. 

Talim's path has reduced the likelihood of significant power, transport, and commercial disruptions in Zhejiang Province and Shanghai. However, flooding and landslides could cause road closures and rail disruptions; bridge closures are possible in Hangzhou Bay and Shanghai. Weather-related delays and cancellations are likely at airports in Ningbo (NGB), Hangzhou (HGH), and Shanghai (PVG, SHA). High winds and rough seas may also disrupt port operations in Wenzhou, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shanghai, and possibly Hangzhou. The storm will probably pass over or very close to the Lishui-Jiaojiang Sag in the East China Sea, and offshore logistics disruptions are likely. 

Talim is likely to bring destructive winds and heavy rainfall to Japan's Kyushu, Shikoku, and western Honshu islands. Sustained winds of 178 kph (110 mph) are forecast when the system makes landfall late September 16 or early September 17. Rainfall of up to 250 mm (10 inches) could occur in these areas, likely triggering flash and areal flooding. Landslides may occur, especially in Kyushu, which has been affected by flooding in recent months. 

Powerful winds could cause property damage and down trees and power lines; power outages are likely in Kyushu. Flooding and/or landslides are likely and could block rail and roadways, limiting ground transport across western Japan. Strong winds will likely cause flight disruptions at airports in Kyushu, including Kagoshima (KOJ), Nagasaki (NGS), and Kumamoto (KMJ). Though Talim is projected to weaken rapidly as it tracks northeastward across land, the storm could still cause flight disruptions at airports serving Kochi (KCZ), Hiroshima (HIJ), Okayama (OKJ), and Osaka (KIX, ITM). Ferry and port disruptions are probable as the storm tracks across Kyushu and western Honshu islands. 

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