Typhoon Talim - Taiwan, China and Japan

14 Sep 2017

Typhoon Talim continues to strengthen as it tracks northwestward in the Philippine Sea. The storm will probably intensify into a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds in excess of 194 kph (121 mph) before passing north of Taiwan on September 13-14. Landfall may occur near Ningbo in northern Zhejiang Province in China on September 15, although models have been shifting the storm eastward, and the system might only graze the Zhejiang coast before turning toward Japan's Kyushu region. Typhoon conditions will occur in the Sakishima Islands - the southernmost part of Japan's Ryukyu Islands - on September 13. 

Based on current projections, tropical storm conditions are possible in the northernmost part of Taiwan, including Taipei, Keelung, and Yilan. Heavy rain and flooding are possible, especially in northern counties, although the storm will pass the island relatively quickly. High winds and thunderstorms could affect flight operations at airports serving Taipei (TSA, TPE); short-haul flights using turboprop aircraft are more likely to be cancelled. High winds may force a temporary suspension of cargo handling at the ports of Keelung and Taipei. More significant disruptions will occur if the storm takes a more southerly track and passes closer to Taipei, although major damage currently appears unlikely. Talim is forecast to be a relatively compact typhoon, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward about 65-83 km (40-52 miles) from the center of circulation when it passes Taiwan. 

The typhoon is forecast to make landfall near Ningbo in northern Zhejiang Province on September 15. Significant power, transport, and commercial disruptions are possible in Zhejiang. The system will also probably produce heavy rainfall and flash and areal flooding throughout the Yangtze Delta region, including in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu Province. Tropical storm-force winds could also occur in northern Fujian Province if the storm veers southward as it approaches eastern China. Landslides are possible in mountainous areas, and storm surge flooding is likely along the Zhejiang coast north of Wenzhou and in Hangzhou Bay and Shanghai. 

Road closures and rail disruptions can be expected; bridge closures are possible in Hangzhou Bay and Shanghai. Weather-related delays and cancellations are likely at airports in Ningbo (NGB), Hangzhou (HGH), and Shanghai (PVG, SHA). High winds and rough seas will likely disrupt port operations in Wenzhou, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Shanghai, and possibly Hangzhou. The storm will probably pass over or very close to the Lishui-Jiaojiang Sag in the East China Sea, and offshore logistics disruptions are likely. 

The typhoon is currently forecast to pass through the southernmost part of the Ryukyu chain on September 13. Tropical storm-force winds are possible on Okinawa, although major disruptions are unlikely on that island. The system could veer eastward after passing close to the Yangtze Delta in China and make landfall in Kagoshima Prefecture as a marginal typhoon or strong tropical storm late September 16 or early September 17. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding could occur in Kyushu, and port and airport disruptions are possible in Kagoshima, Nagasaki, and Kumamoto.

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