India - Cyclone Ockhi

4 Dec 2017

Tropical Cyclone Ockhi has begun weakening but remains a severe cyclonic storm. As of the evening of December 3, the center of circulation was about 778 km (483 miles) southwest of Mumbai, Maharashtra State, India. Meteorologists predict the storm will continue to weaken gradually through December 4, as it completes its turn to the north-northeast and begins tracking back toward the Indian coast. The system is expected to begin weakening more rapidly over December 5, with landfall forecast near Surat, Gujarat State, late on December 5 to early December 6. Ockhi will quickly weaken even further as it moves inland, becoming a tropical depression between Ahmedabad and Vadodara in Gujarat State by late December 6. 

Heavy rainfall, strong winds, landslides, and transport and business disruptions are possible from December 4 onward in Gujarat and Maharashtra as the system approaches. The center of circulation is forecast to pass within 171 kilometers (106 miles) of Mumbai late on December 5. Sustained wind speeds of up to 83 kph (50 mph) may affect coastal areas from Mumbai to Daman and Diu. Although the system is expected to significantly weaken before it makes landfall, landslides and areal flooding are likely as Ockhi brings heavy rain to the region. Associated flooding could cause localized ground transport disruptions throughout Gujarat, Daman and Diu, and western Maharashtra. Areal flooding, landslides, and downed trees may disrupt road and rail travel. Utility interruptions are also possible in the area. Ockhi has the potential to disrupt maritime shipping and port operations in the eastern Arabian Sea. Anticipate flight delays and cancellations at airports serving regional destinations, including Mumbai (BOM), Surat (STV), and Ahmedabad (AMD). 

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